Is Microsoft genAI billions at risk?

ComputerWorld.com reported that “In the big-spending history of technology, there’s never been a time like this, when so many companies are spending so many hundreds of billions of dollars on a still-to-be proven technology — generative AI.”  The August 27, 2025 article entitled “Could Microsoft’s AI billions go up in smoke?” (https://www.computerworld.com/article/4045573/could-microsofts-ai-billions-go-up-in-smoke.html) included these comments:

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google are expected to spend a combined $364 billion in their 2025 fiscal years alone. (Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion in AI capital expenditures.) 

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. It doesn’t take into account spending by chip manufacturers like Nvidia and Intel, or by genAI startups like Anthropic, OpenAI and all the rest. And it doesn’t take into account how much enterprises spend on the technology. 

Lost in all of this is an unthinkable thought: What if genAI can’t offer the benefits its backers claim? What if it’s the biggest bust in a long line of tech busts?

Microsoft, the largest and most valuable AI company in the world, has more to lose than any company if all the promises turn out to be illusory or overhyped. And there’s increasing evidence that might just be the case. From McKinsey to Gartner to MIT and beyond, analysts and researchers are saying the quiet part out loud: There may be more hype than reality to the genAI boom. 

Here’s what they’re saying — and what it could mean for the future of Microsoft if they’re right.

Interesting, what do you think?